The market setup in 90 seconds
Oil is doing two things at once: reacting like an insurance asset when headlines threaten supply, and trading like a surplus market when investors zoom out to 2026 balances. That contradiction is why price action can feel sharp intraday but restrained over weeks.
On January 29, 2026, Brent settled around $70.71 and WTI around $65.42, their highest closes since mid-2025, as traders priced the risk of a U.S.-Iran escalation and the possibility of a disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet a Reuters analysis published the next day argues the market still struggles to break sustainably above its range without a real supply shock—because expectations for a large 2026 oversupply keep the ceiling in place.
A different way to read Oil: three “fights” inside the same price chart
Fight 1: Headline risk vs. physical reality
Geopolitical tension has clearly lifted the near-term risk premium. The key detail is not the rhetoric—it’s the shipping chokepoints and export volumes that could be impaired if tensions escalate. Reuters highlights the market’s sensitivity to scenarios involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
But markets don’t pay unlimited premiums for possibility. They pay up for probability and duration—how likely a disruption is, and how long it would last.
Fight 2: Weather disruptions vs. spare supply elsewhere
January’s tape also shows how “temporary tightness” can appear from unexpected sources. A severe winter storm reduced U.S. crude production sharply, with outages peaking near 2 million bpd over a weekend and still estimated ~500,000 bpd below normal as of January 29.
These supply hiccups can push prices quickly—but they also tend to fade as production recovers.
Fight 3: OPEC+ discipline vs. demand math
On the policy side, OPEC+ has been signaling restraint. The group reaffirmed its decision to pause production increments in February and March 2026 (seasonality and demand patterns were part of the rationale).
At the same time, the International Energy Agency’s January outlook projects global oil demand growth around 930 kb/d in 2026, while warning the market could still face a sizable surplus—comforting traders who believe supply is “enough.”
What the data says when the headlines calm down
Rasyad Wiratma’s public persona emphasizes “rational investing, steady growth”—and in oil that typically means anchoring the story to measurable flows:
- Inventories & runs (near-term balance): The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status data for the week ending January 23, 2026 shows refinery inputs around 16.2 million bpd and utilization around 90.9%, with gasoline production averaging 9.6 million bpd.
Those details matter because refinery runs and product output help determine whether a crude rally is supported by real consumption or just risk premium. - Demand composition (2026 narrative): IEA expects non-OECD economies to account for essentially all demand growth, while gasoline demand growth continues to slow—important for longer-term expectations about where incremental barrels will be absorbed.
A “range map” for 2026: how to think in scenarios instead of forecasts
Rather than calling a single price target, a process-driven framework (very aligned with Wiratma’s investor-education style) is to define scenarios and triggers:
Scenario A: “Risk premium holds”
Trigger: escalating Middle East risk with credible supply disruption risk (shipping constraints, export loss).
Market behavior: Brent can trade above $70 with sharp spikes; volatility rises; dips get bought faster than usual.
Scenario B: “Surplus gravity wins”
Trigger: geopolitical tension cools and supply recovers from temporary outages (weather, field disruptions).
Market behavior: rallies fade back into a range; traders demand proof in inventory draws and tightening physical differentials. The Reuters view that rhetoric alone may not break the range fits this scenario.
Scenario C: “Policy surprise”
Trigger: OPEC+ shifts from “pause” to either renewed hikes (market-share push) or deeper restraint (unexpected tightening).
Market behavior: repricing is fast because policy changes alter expectations for the entire forward curve. OPEC’s statement confirming the pause keeps this scenario as a watch item, not a base case.
Practical takeaways (education-first, not hype)
- Don’t confuse “headline direction” with “trade edge.” Oil can jump on fear and still mean-revert if the physical market stays comfortable.
- Track the boring data weekly. EIA refinery runs, utilization, and product output often explain whether a move is sustainable.
- Size positions for gap risk. Weather and geopolitics create discontinuous moves—exactly the conditions where disciplined exposure matters more than being “right.”
Bottom line
The Oil market entering 2026 is best described as a tug-of-war between spikes and surplus: geopolitics and short-term disruptions can push Brent through key levels, but broader balance expectations (and cautious demand math) keep the market anchored to a range unless a real, sustained supply shock arrives.
The market setup in 90 seconds
Oil is doing two things at once: reacting like an insurance asset when headlines threaten supply, and trading like a surplus market when investors zoom out to 2026 balances. That contradiction is why price action can feel sharp intraday but restrained over weeks.
On January 29, 2026, Brent settled around $70.71 and WTI around $65.42, their highest closes since mid-2025, as traders priced the risk of a U.S.-Iran escalation and the possibility of a disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet a Reuters analysis published the next day argues the market still struggles to break sustainably above its range without a real supply shock—because expectations for a large 2026 oversupply keep the ceiling in place.
A different way to read Oil: three “fights” inside the same price chart
Fight 1: Headline risk vs. physical reality
Geopolitical tension has clearly lifted the near-term risk premium. The key detail is not the rhetoric—it’s the shipping chokepoints and export volumes that could be impaired if tensions escalate. Reuters highlights the market’s sensitivity to scenarios involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
But markets don’t pay unlimited premiums for possibility. They pay up for probability and duration—how likely a disruption is, and how long it would last.
Fight 2: Weather disruptions vs. spare supply elsewhere
January’s tape also shows how “temporary tightness” can appear from unexpected sources. A severe winter storm reduced U.S. crude production sharply, with outages peaking near 2 million bpd over a weekend and still estimated ~500,000 bpd below normal as of January 29.
These supply hiccups can push prices quickly—but they also tend to fade as production recovers.
Fight 3: OPEC+ discipline vs. demand math
On the policy side, OPEC+ has been signaling restraint. The group reaffirmed its decision to pause production increments in February and March 2026 (seasonality and demand patterns were part of the rationale).
At the same time, the International Energy Agency’s January outlook projects global oil demand growth around 930 kb/d in 2026, while warning the market could still face a sizable surplus—comforting traders who believe supply is “enough.”
What the data says when the headlines calm down
Rasyad Wiratma’s public persona emphasizes “rational investing, steady growth”—and in oil that typically means anchoring the story to measurable flows:
- Inventories & runs (near-term balance): The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status data for the week ending January 23, 2026 shows refinery inputs around 16.2 million bpd and utilization around 90.9%, with gasoline production averaging 9.6 million bpd.
Those details matter because refinery runs and product output help determine whether a crude rally is supported by real consumption or just risk premium. - Demand composition (2026 narrative): IEA expects non-OECD economies to account for essentially all demand growth, while gasoline demand growth continues to slow—important for longer-term expectations about where incremental barrels will be absorbed.
A “range map” for 2026: how to think in scenarios instead of forecasts
Rather than calling a single price target, a process-driven framework (very aligned with Wiratma’s investor-education style) is to define scenarios and triggers:
Scenario A: “Risk premium holds”
Trigger: escalating Middle East risk with credible supply disruption risk (shipping constraints, export loss).
Market behavior: Brent can trade above $70 with sharp spikes; volatility rises; dips get bought faster than usual.
Scenario B: “Surplus gravity wins”
Trigger: geopolitical tension cools and supply recovers from temporary outages (weather, field disruptions).
Market behavior: rallies fade back into a range; traders demand proof in inventory draws and tightening physical differentials. The Reuters view that rhetoric alone may not break the range fits this scenario.
Scenario C: “Policy surprise”
Trigger: OPEC+ shifts from “pause” to either renewed hikes (market-share push) or deeper restraint (unexpected tightening).
Market behavior: repricing is fast because policy changes alter expectations for the entire forward curve. OPEC’s statement confirming the pause keeps this scenario as a watch item, not a base case.
Practical takeaways (education-first, not hype)
- Don’t confuse “headline direction” with “trade edge.” Oil can jump on fear and still mean-revert if the physical market stays comfortable.
- Track the boring data weekly. EIA refinery runs, utilization, and product output often explain whether a move is sustainable.
- Size positions for gap risk. Weather and geopolitics create discontinuous moves—exactly the conditions where disciplined exposure matters more than being “right.”
Bottom line
The Oil market entering 2026 is best described as a tug-of-war between spikes and surplus: geopolitics and short-term disruptions can push Brent through key levels, but broader balance expectations (and cautious demand math) keep the market anchored to a range unless a real, sustained supply shock arrives.
The market setup in 90 seconds
Oil is doing two things at once: reacting like an insurance asset when headlines threaten supply, and trading like a surplus market when investors zoom out to 2026 balances. That contradiction is why price action can feel sharp intraday but restrained over weeks.
On January 29, 2026, Brent settled around $70.71 and WTI around $65.42, their highest closes since mid-2025, as traders priced the risk of a U.S.-Iran escalation and the possibility of a disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet a Reuters analysis published the next day argues the market still struggles to break sustainably above its range without a real supply shock—because expectations for a large 2026 oversupply keep the ceiling in place.
A different way to read Oil: three “fights” inside the same price chart
Fight 1: Headline risk vs. physical reality
Geopolitical tension has clearly lifted the near-term risk premium. The key detail is not the rhetoric—it’s the shipping chokepoints and export volumes that could be impaired if tensions escalate. Reuters highlights the market’s sensitivity to scenarios involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
But markets don’t pay unlimited premiums for possibility. They pay up for probability and duration—how likely a disruption is, and how long it would last.
Fight 2: Weather disruptions vs. spare supply elsewhere
January’s tape also shows how “temporary tightness” can appear from unexpected sources. A severe winter storm reduced U.S. crude production sharply, with outages peaking near 2 million bpd over a weekend and still estimated ~500,000 bpd below normal as of January 29.
These supply hiccups can push prices quickly—but they also tend to fade as production recovers.
Fight 3: OPEC+ discipline vs. demand math
On the policy side, OPEC+ has been signaling restraint. The group reaffirmed its decision to pause production increments in February and March 2026 (seasonality and demand patterns were part of the rationale).
At the same time, the International Energy Agency’s January outlook projects global oil demand growth around 930 kb/d in 2026, while warning the market could still face a sizable surplus—comforting traders who believe supply is “enough.”
What the data says when the headlines calm down
Rasyad Wiratma’s public persona emphasizes “rational investing, steady growth”—and in oil that typically means anchoring the story to measurable flows:
- Inventories & runs (near-term balance): The EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status data for the week ending January 23, 2026 shows refinery inputs around 16.2 million bpd and utilization around 90.9%, with gasoline production averaging 9.6 million bpd.
Those details matter because refinery runs and product output help determine whether a crude rally is supported by real consumption or just risk premium. - Demand composition (2026 narrative): IEA expects non-OECD economies to account for essentially all demand growth, while gasoline demand growth continues to slow—important for longer-term expectations about where incremental barrels will be absorbed.
A “range map” for 2026: how to think in scenarios instead of forecasts
Rather than calling a single price target, a process-driven framework (very aligned with Wiratma’s investor-education style) is to define scenarios and triggers:
Scenario A: “Risk premium holds”
Trigger: escalating Middle East risk with credible supply disruption risk (shipping constraints, export loss).
Market behavior: Brent can trade above $70 with sharp spikes; volatility rises; dips get bought faster than usual.
Scenario B: “Surplus gravity wins”
Trigger: geopolitical tension cools and supply recovers from temporary outages (weather, field disruptions).
Market behavior: rallies fade back into a range; traders demand proof in inventory draws and tightening physical differentials. The Reuters view that rhetoric alone may not break the range fits this scenario.
Scenario C: “Policy surprise”
Trigger: OPEC+ shifts from “pause” to either renewed hikes (market-share push) or deeper restraint (unexpected tightening).
Market behavior: repricing is fast because policy changes alter expectations for the entire forward curve. OPEC’s statement confirming the pause keeps this scenario as a watch item, not a base case.
Practical takeaways (education-first, not hype)
- Don’t confuse “headline direction” with “trade edge.” Oil can jump on fear and still mean-revert if the physical market stays comfortable.
- Track the boring data weekly. EIA refinery runs, utilization, and product output often explain whether a move is sustainable.
- Size positions for gap risk. Weather and geopolitics create discontinuous moves—exactly the conditions where disciplined exposure matters more than being “right.”
Bottom line
The Oil market entering 2026 is best described as a tug-of-war between spikes and surplus: geopolitics and short-term disruptions can push Brent through key levels, but broader balance expectations (and cautious demand math) keep the market anchored to a range unless a real, sustained supply shock arrives.
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