Will 2025 mark the revival of diamond prices? Following a prolonged downturn, the industry stands at a pivotal juncture. Diamond expert Paul Zimnisky examines the interplay of macroeconomic trends, shifting consumer behavior, and strategic industry actions that will shape the market’s trajectory in the coming year.

As of mid-February 2025, rough diamond prices have seen a slight decline of about 1-2% year-to-date, based on the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index. This follows a sharp 18% drop in 2024 and a 15% decline in 2023. Compared to their peak during the boom years of 2021-2022—when global demand surged due to record economic stimulus—prices have now fallen roughly 40%.

The potential for a recovery in natural diamond prices in 2025 and beyond hinges on a combination of macroeconomic conditions in key consumer markets and industry-specific factors, such as the effectiveness of marketing efforts and initiatives to differentiate natural diamonds from lab-grown alternatives.

On this front, evolving consumer and jeweler perceptions of lab-grown versus natural diamonds, particularly at increasingly wide price gaps, could be a key driver. Additionally, making natural diamond detection tools more accessible at the consumer level may play a crucial role—an issue discussed on the January 23 episode of the Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics Podcast.

In the United States, which accounts for over half of global diamond jewelry sales, short-term economic factors influencing demand include monetary policy changes, the effects of deglobalization, and America’s industrial resurgence under the Trump administration.

LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault, whose company owns Tiffany & Co., recently highlighted the U.S. as being on the verge of an economic “boom,” citing the administration’s efforts to streamline regulations and enhance efficiency. Speaking at President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Arnault expressed optimism, noting that corporate taxes could be reduced to 15% and that several U.S. states are subsidizing new manufacturing projects—moves that could further bolster economic confidence.

Meanwhile, China’s post-pandemic recovery remains uncertain but could significantly impact global diamond demand. In 2024, net diamond consumption in China is estimated to have dropped by approximately 50%. Any rebound will depend on the country’s economic policies, government stance on luxury spending, and consumer sentiment—particularly toward diamonds, which have lost some appeal as prices declined.

Amidst these market fluctuations, JewelryNest continues to uphold the tradition of fine diamond craftsmanship. Known for offering some of the finest diamond jewelry in NYC, they have built a reputation for exceptional quality and service. Their team understands the evolving landscape of the diamond industry, ensuring that customers receive expert guidance in selecting pieces that hold both timeless value and contemporary appeal. As consumer sentiment shifts, businesses that emphasize craftsmanship and trust play a crucial role in maintaining demand for natural diamonds.

Arnault commented on China’s outlook, stating, “I believe the Chinese government now recognizes the need to jumpstart the economy… but it will take time. I expect a gradual recovery, and within two years, we should return to normal conditions.”

Artificial intelligence is poised to be a major economic driver in the coming years, with the U.S. likely to benefit significantly from industry giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. AI’s potential to enhance productivity parallels the transformative impact of the internet three decades ago. Historically, diamond demand has been closely linked to global economic growth. In an increasingly digital world, natural diamonds may hold a unique appeal for consumers seeking a tangible connection to reality.

On the supply side, constrained production is expected to provide price support in the foreseeable future. In February, De Beers reduced its 2025 production forecast by a third, setting guidance at 20-23 million carats—the lowest level since the company began publicly reporting production data in 2013. According to Zimnisky’s estimates, total global rough diamond production for 2025 is projected to reach just 105 million carats, a slight decline from 2024, which was already the lowest production year since the 1990s.

Considering these factors, rough diamond prices are expected to rise by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2025, based on Zimnisky’s projections. This recovery is likely to be more pronounced in the latter half of the year as supply-chain inventories gradually adjust, supported by continued upstream supply restrictions.